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Showing posts with label prediction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label prediction. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

A pretty good article in the news about ...

... what motivates school violence.

Turns out it is hard to predict. Like all criminal behavior.

In criminology, it's called the "prediction problem."


If you're wondering who else in the United States might fit a "profile" of becoming a mass killer, just look around: They are everywhere, and they're most likely harmless. FULL STORY | OPINION: PREDICTING MASS MURDER IS IMPOSSIBLE

BUT, if there is a criticism of this article, it is that it fails to note the clear profile that has emerged in such cases.

Almost universally, these guys are white males, with easy access to guns, in rural areas, that were bullied or tormented, that suffered serious stress or strain in their lives including mental illness, and that told not one but multiple people in advance.

The problem is, most people who fit this profile don't shoot up schools. So how do you stop the one who does?

The only solution is to take them all seriously.